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Projected active population on 1 January. By evolution scenarios. Counties and Aran, areas and provinces

Projected active population on 1 January. By evolution scenarios. Counties and Aran, areas and provinces 2045
Active population Activity rate of 16 to 64 years (%)
Low scen. Medium scen. High scen. Low scen. Medium scen. High scen.
Alt Camp 19,161 23,440 28,708 77.64 81.53 85.47
Alt Empordà 57,016 71,777 93,559 76.79 80.75 84.77
Alt Penedès 48,505 59,867 71,983 78.52 82.44 86.30
Alt Urgell 7,356 9,153 10,207 75.54 79.40 83.07
Alta Ribagorça 1,515 1,896 2,256 75.61 79.52 83.44
Anoia 55,791 68,305 81,643 78.06 81.97 85.83
Aran 5,014 5,927 6,609 77.55 81.26 84.96
Bages 75,452 88,914 110,446 77.69 81.62 85.66
Baix Camp 84,475 105,066 130,777 76.62 80.53 84.46
Baix Ebre 31,967 36,895 40,904 75.61 79.32 82.99
Baix Empordà 55,498 69,382 89,763 76.32 80.26 84.27
Baix Llobregat 371,012 463,568 552,617 78.43 82.40 86.29
Baix Penedès 46,028 58,654 72,001 75.91 79.88 83.76
Barcelonès 1,042,670 1,216,259 1,315,274 77.81 81.73 85.54
Berguedà 15,785 18,568 23,006 76.75 80.68 84.78
Cerdanya 8,759 9,994 11,334 76.86 80.67 84.49
Conca de Barberà 7,614 9,272 11,256 78.34 82.32 86.37
Garraf 60,341 77,541 95,872 76.24 80.20 84.03
Garrigues 7,162 8,442 9,591 76.91 80.72 84.50
Garrotxa 28,753 34,753 43,230 79.73 83.70 87.75
Gironès 92,927 114,909 147,454 78.83 82.83 86.94
Maresme 204,914 255,978 305,652 77.76 81.73 85.61
Moianès 6,777 8,133 9,857 78.80 82.69 86.65
Montsià 27,879 32,774 37,611 75.04 78.76 82.46
Noguera 16,301 19,071 21,387 78.31 82.16 85.96
Osona 77,955 91,879 116,502 79.57 83.49 87.55
Pallars Jussà 5,404 6,339 7,280 77.41 81.31 85.05
Pallars Sobirà 3,214 3,817 4,311 78.91 82.81 86.56
Pla d'Urgell 16,387 18,991 21,174 77.76 81.55 85.34
Pla de l'Estany 15,792 18,890 23,279 79.28 83.25 87.35
Priorat 3,553 4,423 5,501 77.48 81.40 85.29
Ribera d'Ebre 8,179 9,568 10,819 75.96 79.72 83.41
Ripollès 10,433 12,649 15,481 78.89 82.82 86.80
Segarra 10,552 12,388 13,955 79.38 83.20 86.99
Segrià 90,401 106,147 119,126 76.96 80.78 84.53
Selva 73,100 92,355 119,475 76.32 80.21 84.14
Solsonès 5,686 6,716 8,389 77.86 81.83 85.84
Tarragonès 113,199 143,762 182,736 75.17 79.07 82.97
Terra Alta 4,062 4,692 5,281 77.45 81.04 84.77
Urgell 16,718 19,600 21,980 77.99 81.83 85.63
Vallès Occidental 436,394 543,817 649,283 78.53 82.48 86.37
Vallès Oriental 192,086 236,573 279,943 79.01 82.97 86.86
Catalonia 3,461,787 4,201,144 4,927,512 77.81 81.74 85.61
Metropolità 2,248,982 2,718,549 3,105,546 78.15 82.10 85.97
Comarques Gironines 333,519 414,715 532,241 77.59 81.53 85.54
Camp de Tarragona 228,002 285,963 358,978 76.04 79.93 83.84
Terres de l'Ebre 72,087 83,929 94,615 75.53 79.24 82.92
Ponent 157,521 184,639 207,213 77.45 81.27 85.03
Comarques Centrals 181,991 214,543 268,791 78.44 82.37 86.43
Alt Pirineu i Aran 31,262 37,126 41,997 76.89 80.71 84.46
Penedès 208,423 261,680 318,131 77.16 81.08 84.92
Barcelona 2,587,682 3,129,402 3,612,078 78.13 82.08 85.96
Girona 340,687 422,832 541,432 77.58 81.51 85.53
Lleida 187,301 220,364 248,408 77.39 81.21 84.98
Tarragona 346,117 428,546 525,594 75.92 79.79 83.67
Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2021).

Last update: June 20, 2022.

Methodological note

Methodological aspects

The Active Population Projections statistical operation is the result of applying to the population, projected by sex and age, assumptions as to the future level of participation in the workforce.

The Active Population Projections provide two types of results:

  1. the projected active population
  2. the projected activity rate

The Active Population Projections offers information classified by sex and five-year age groups. This operation is updated every five years and the date of reference is 1 January each year.

The current Active Population Projections (base 2021) are based on the 2020 Active Population Survey and the Population Projections (base 2021).

In the section Earliar projections you can find the projections prior to the Active Population Projections base 2021 (the Active Population Projections 2015–2051, base 2015, the Active Population Projections 2021–2041, base 2010, and the Active Population Projections 2015–2030, base 2005)

Population Projections (base 2021). Current projections

The future population to which the new activity rates have been applied are the Population Projections (base 2021).

The time frame of the Active Population Projections of Catalonia corresponds to the period 2021–2071, while the territorial data corresponds to the period 2021–2046.

In the Active Population Projections (base 2021), the previous hypotheses have been revised in order to incorporate the most recent information from the Active Population Survey for the years 2015–2020. For the territorial hypotheses on labour participation, the regional data for the period 2016–2020 from the Statistics on the Contributors and Affiliations to Social Security based on Contributors' Registered Place of Residence and the Statistics on job seekers and registered unemployment have been used.

To reflect the uncertainty in the evolution of labour participation in the 2021–2071 period, three hypotheses were established, based on the results of the 2020 Economically Active Population Survey:

  1. low hypothesis
  2. average hypothesis
  3. high hypothesis

These three hypotheses on the evolution of labour participation have resulted in three scenarios for the active population:

  1. Low activity scenario: combines a hypothesis of low labour participation and a low population scenario.
  2. Average activity scenario: combines a hypothesis of average labour participation and an average population scenario.
  3. High activity scenario: combines a hypothesis of high labour participation and a high population scenario.

The results of the projected active population pyramids are provided by sex and five-year age group for Catalonia (2021–2071 period) and areas of the Territorial Plan, provinces, counties, and the municipality of Barcelona (2021–2046 period).

The oldest age group considered is the 70–74 age group. The projected rates of activity are also provided by sex and age group.

When the value is lower than that of the minimum unit to be able to estimate the statistical operation or if it effects statistical confidentiality, the symbol used is "..".