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Projected population on 1 January. By evolution scenarios and large age groups

Projected population on 1 January (base 2021). By evolution scenarios and age groups Catalonia. 2070
From 0 to 15 years From 16 to 64 years 65 years and over
Number of persons % Number of persons % Number of persons % Total
2025
Low scenario 1,125,213 14.7 4,976,528 65.0 1,557,936 20.3 7,659,677
Medium scenario 1,166,420 14.8 5,134,293 65.1 1,587,121 20.1 7,887,834
High scenario 1,203,337 14.9 5,279,593 65.2 1,609,830 19.9 8,092,760
2030
Low scenario 999,822 13.1 4,914,413 64.5 1,704,599 22.4 7,618,834
Medium scenario 1,102,333 13.7 5,205,387 64.5 1,765,609 21.9 8,073,329
High scenario 1,206,552 14.1 5,515,583 64.6 1,814,414 21.3 8,536,549
2035
Low scenario 922,723 12.2 4,777,439 63.1 1,875,750 24.8 7,575,912
Medium scenario 1,093,843 13.3 5,175,385 62.8 1,966,897 23.9 8,236,125
High scenario 1,269,152 14.3 5,576,888 62.7 2,046,547 23.0 8,892,587
2040
Low scenario 909,465 12.1 4,553,037 60.6 2,051,598 27.3 7,514,100
Medium scenario 1,139,234 13.6 5,062,087 60.3 2,187,496 26.1 8,388,817
High scenario 1,373,587 14.9 5,534,431 60.1 2,307,107 25.0 9,215,125
2045
Low scenario 910,611 12.3 4,318,212 58.2 2,196,000 29.6 7,424,823
Medium scenario 1,172,917 13.8 4,952,336 58.2 2,391,000 28.1 8,516,253
High scenario 1,438,585 15.1 5,511,564 57.9 2,562,377 26.9 9,512,526
2050
Low scenario 901,545 12.3 4,171,626 57.1 2,226,876 30.5 7,300,047
Medium scenario 1,179,446 13.7 4,939,434 57.4 2,490,039 28.9 8,608,919
High scenario 1,455,269 14.9 5,598,893 57.3 2,723,917 27.9 9,778,079
2055
Low scenario 875,362 12.3 4,076,467 57.1 2,187,005 30.6 7,138,834
Medium scenario 1,167,060 13.5 4,971,885 57.4 2,526,935 29.2 8,665,880
High scenario 1,453,396 14.5 5,727,146 57.2 2,835,202 28.3 10,015,744
2060
Low scenario 839,144 12.1 3,989,854 57.4 2,119,708 30.5 6,948,706
Medium scenario 1,150,615 13.2 4,998,534 57.5 2,544,381 29.3 8,693,530
High scenario 1,458,676 14.3 5,835,625 57.0 2,938,993 28.7 10,233,294
2065
Low scenario 806,308 12.0 3,901,466 57.8 2,036,976 30.2 6,744,750
Medium scenario 1,142,854 13.1 5,013,103 57.6 2,547,021 29.3 8,702,978
High scenario 1,482,396 14.2 5,922,723 56.7 3,033,183 29.1 10,438,302
2070
Low scenario 782,614 12.0 3,795,868 58.0 1,964,530 30.0 6,543,012
Medium scenario 1,145,544 13.2 5,004,836 57.5 2,555,451 29.4 8,705,831
High scenario 1,517,745 14.3 5,988,433 56.3 3,129,152 29.4 10,635,330
Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2021).

Last update: April 7, 2022.

Methodological note

Methodological aspects

The goal of population projections is to describe possible future population evolution, both in total size and according to different variables: sex and age; place of residence; composition of the household; relationship with the activity.

Idescat updates population projections in five-year cycles.

The current projections are the Population Projections of Catalonia (base 2021) and an update of the Population Projections of Catalonia (base 2018).

The advance base Population Projections 2021 provide data for Catalonia. The starting point is the population on 1 January 2021, which includes the increase in mortality and the decrease in fertility and migration resulting from the pandemic in 2020. Data are provided for the period 2021-2071.

There are three projection scenarios: low, medium and high. Three scenarios have been developed for each of the projection items: fertility, life expectancy, internal migration, migration with the rest of Spain and migration with foreign countries.

The medium scenario assumes a combination of average fertility, average life expectancy and average migration (with the rest of Spain and foreign countries). This scenario is intended to reflect the most likely evolution of demographic growth and structure in Catalonia according to recent data. The medium scenario is considered as the reference scenario.

When the value is lower than that of the minimum unit to be able to estimate the statistical operation or if it effects statistical confidentiality, the symbol used is "..".